The impact of non-Poisson contact processes on virus spreading

نویسنده

  • Alexei Vázquez
چکیده

Halting an epidemic outbreak in its early stages requires a detailed understanding of the contact dynamics between the agents capable of carrying the pathogen. While current epidemic models assume that agents interact at a uniform rate, following a Poisson process, here we provide evidence that for several computer and biological viruses the inter contact time distribution is heavy tailed. This non-Poisson contact dynamics results in a lengthy subexponential pre-outbreak regime, preceding the exponential growth in the number of infected individuals. The temporal inhomogeneity of the observed contact dynamics affects both the nature of the fluctuations in the pre-outbreak regime, as well as the immunization rate necessary to halt the outbreak, indicating that the timing of the contacts plays a hitherto unsuspected role in epidemic modeling.

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تاریخ انتشار 2005